Multi-level emulation of tsunami simulations over Cilacap, South Java, Indonesia

Abstract Carrying out a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) requires large number of simulations done at high resolution. Statistical emulation builds surrogate to replace the simulator and thus reduces computational costs when propagating uncertainties from earthquake sources tsunami inundations. To reduce further these costs, we propose here build emulators that exploit multiple levels resolution sequential design computer experiments. By running few many more lower resolutions are able provide realistic assessments whereas, for same budget, using only do not satisfactory outcome. As result, PTHA can be considered with higher precision highest spatial resolutions, impacts over larger regions. We an illustration city Cilacap in Indonesia demonstrates benefit our approach.